Lynchburg City Schools

What is a “COHORT?”

A COHORT is a group of students who enter the ninth grade for the first time together with the expectation of graduation within four years. Each student in a cohort is tracked individually using a special number called a “state testing identifier.” With these numbers, students who move among schools within the state can be accounted for, which is why the cohort data are the most accurate available. Both the Cohort Dropout Rate and the Virginia On Time Graduation Rate are based on specific student cohort groups.

There are so many reports that come out annually. Why should I pay attention to this new “cohort” data?

Bottom line – the cohort data are the most accurate data. The Virginia cohort rates for on time graduation and dropouts reflect the experiences of actual students rather than a formula designed to produce a “best-guess” estimate.

Is the “cohort dropout percentage” recently released by the state the same as the “annual dropout percentage” used in years past?

No, it is different. The old annual dropout percentage looks at the percentage of students in grades 9 through 12 that drop out in a single year. The cohort dropout percentage is based a specific group of students, a cohort, that started ninth grade together four years earlier. Accounting for students who transfer or leave the state’s school system, the cohort gives you the actual percentage of students who drop out over the course of four years. Because a cohort dropout percentage covers four years, it is likely to be about four times as large as a single year percentage.

2008 Cohort Dropout Rate (Freshman in 2004-05)
Lynchburg City Schools: 10.9%
E.C. Glass High School: 12.8%
Heritage High School: 8.4%

Last fall I heard about the new Virginia On Time Graduation Rate. How is that different than the graduation rates used in years past?

The main difference is that the new Virginia On Time Graduation Rate is a cohort rate, a rate based on the experiences of actual students. The graduation rates reported in years past were just “best guess” estimates. If an individual student is able to earn a state diploma within four years of entering the ninth grade, he or she will be counted in the Virginia On Time Graduation Rate for that school and school division. Students who dropout, earn a certificate of completion, earn a General Educational Development (GED) certificate, or don’t finish on time (with limited exceptions), will not be counted in the On Time Graduation Rate.

On Time Graduation Rates for the 2008 Cohort (Freshman in 2004-05)
Lynchburg City Schools: 73.9%
E.C. Glass High School: 73.2%
Heritage High School: 74.8%

Why don’t the graduation rates and dropout rates for a school add up to 100%? What happened to the rest of the students in the cohort?

Not every student graduates or drops out in four years. Some students earn a General Educational Development (GED) certificate or a certificate of completion. Others are still in school after four years, and they are still working toward graduation. A few might be on a long-term absence due to illness or other special situation, and a small percentage have an unconfirmed status, reflecting some difficulty the state is having with tracking that particular student.
It is important to note that an unconfirmed status is not used for students whose whereabouts are unknown; those students are included in the dropout category.

I’m a math person. Can I see the formula for the On Time Graduation Rate?

Simply put, the graduation rate equals [on-time graduates (in 2008)] divided by [(first-time entering 9th graders (in 2004) plus (transfers in) minus (transfers out)].
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How do school division officials feel about these numbers? What are they doing to improve them?

These numbers are better in that they are more accurate. However, they are a serious concern in that they reflect far too many of our students failing to complete their high school education. The dropout rate is a national crisis, and it is estimated that across the United States 1.2 million students drop out of high school each year. The economic costs to the students, to our community, to our state, and to our nation are devastating. The Lynchburg City Schools, from our school board to each employee, is committed to working with our community to provide each of our students with the opportunities and support needed to be successful in high school and beyond. We have numerous programs in place across the school division, from transition programs to academic support to truancy prevention, credit recovery, and Standards of Learning test preparation. Please contact our Public Information Office for more detailed information about our efforts to increase graduation rates and what you or your organization can do to help.